本文基于经济增长和金融稳定视角,分析29个新兴市场国家三元悖论框架的演化及该框架选择的经济效应。研究结果表明,首先,新兴市场国家的三元悖论框架未遵循三元悖论.而是呈现“中间化”的特征;其次,中间化的三元悖论框架有助于经济增长和金融稳定,符合新兴市场国家利益;第三,储备对经济增长和金融稳定作用显著,能缓解三元悖论框架分离对经济增长的负向作用。但不能弱化三元悖论框架分离对金融稳定的负面影响。
This paper analyses the evolution of trilemma framework and the economic effect of this framework in 29 selected Ems in terms of economic growth and financial stability. The interesting results are as followed: First, the trilemma framework doesn't follow the traditional theory, but shows the characteristics of middle-ground convergence; Secondly, the trilemma framework with characteristics of middle-ground convergence is conducive to economic growth and financial stability, in line with the state interests of the Ems; Finally, the reserves play a significant role in economic growth and financial stability, which can alleviate the negative effect on economic growth of the trilemma framework, but cannot weaken the negative effect on financial stability.