近年来温州房价持续下跌使房地产市场风险加剧;温州民间借贷崩盘和银行贷款不良率大幅攀升使金融风险凸显。温州市房地产市场与金融市场之间存在着风险交叉传染的问题,这种交叉传染主要有三种传导渠道,包括信贷传导渠道、利率传导渠道和互保联保的贷款担保渠道,而民间高利贷在风险传染中起到了推波助澜的作用,放大了风险的程度,加快了风险传播的速度。温州问题根源于制造业危机和金融制度缺陷,只有完善金融制度,促进金融业虚实并进助推制造业复苏并成功转型升级,才能解决目前温州市房地产金融困局,防止局部风险演化为全局性、系统性危机。
Since house prices keep falling in Wenzhou, the risk of real estate market is aggravated. Wenzhou private lending collapse and a sharp rise in the rate of non-performing loan of banks will lead to financial crisis. There is cross infection between real estate market and financial market in Wenzhou through three major transmission channels : credit transmission, interest rate transmission and mutual warranty and joint warranty of loan guarantee. The private credit also contributes to the risk of infection, increases the risk and accelerates the speed of risk transmission. The manufacturing crisis and financial system defects lead to Wenzhou predicament. In this paper several proposals have been put forward to solve the problem. First, it is vital to improve financial system. Second, it is still important to improve the real and virtual situation of financial industry. Third, it is also essential to facilitate the recovery of the manufacturing industry and to boost the transformation and upgrading of this industry. Thus, Wenzhou could prevent the local risk from evolving into global and systematic crisis.