中文摘要：

2010年上海世博会参观人次众多．需要在规划设计阶段就考虑展时参观者的分布与流动情况。通过网上虚拟参观调查．获取参观者的行为数据，使用Conditional Logit模型描述人在世博会参观过程中连续的目的地选择行为——参观行为，进行多个体参观行为的时空模拟．预测分析了世博会参观人次、人流、就餐需求、休息需求及单个展馆参观的时空变化情况，为世博会展区规划管理和相关设施布局提供参考。

英文摘要：

The plan of the Expo 2010 in Shanghai should pay more attention to the distribution and flows of visitors based on the layout of the EXPO site. In this paper, data on virtual visits to the site were collected by using a web-based experiment. A Conditional Logit Model is applied to predict destination choice behavior of visitors. Model estimation results were very satisfactory with all factors significant in the hypothesized directions. The model is taken as the main structure of the simulation framework with additional behavior modules such as resting, queuing, and dining. We simulated the visits of 4,000 individual visitors and predicted the spatiotemporal distribution of visits, visitor flows, dining demands and rest place demands at the Expo site. Suggestions for site planning and service provision were given, based on these predictions.