中文摘要：

本文研究改革开放以来我国城市建设用地扩张历史路径和未来发展趋势。构建关于城市建设用地的恒等式并分解出影响城市建设用地规模的解释变量为土地利用效率因素、经济发展因素和人口规模因素；利用我国1981—2010年城市建设用地总量、GDP和人口时间序列数据进行协整分析，建立协整模型；在此基础上运用蒙特卡罗动态模拟，模拟得到我国大陆地区城市建设用地扩张速率落在各个区间的概率。分析发现：城市建设用地与其解释变量间存在协整关系，即长期稳定的均衡关系；在短期内，由于经济发展因素的决定性作用，我国城市建设用地有85％的概率以年均1．5％～3．5％的速度扩张，其中年均增长率保持在2．5％附近的概率达到26％；在保持经济社会稳定发展的前提下，通过实行以提高土地利用效率为导向的政策能抑制城市建设用地的过快扩张，把城市建设用地规模控制在合理的范围内。

英文摘要：

The purpose of this paper is to study the expansion of urban construction land in China since the reform and opening-up period. We describe the explanatory variables that influence the scale of urban construction land. Using econometric methods we search long-run equilibrium relationships between variables using time series data for urban construction land, GDP and population. Static scenario analysis indicates that different land use efficiencies can significantly affect the amount of urban construction land expansion. Applying a Monte Carlo simulation, we provide a dynamic explanation and forecast China＇ s urban construction land growth. Results show that there is a long-term co-integration relationship between urban construction land and explanatory variables. The co-integration equation indicates that a one percentage decrease in the quantitative value of land use efficiency would cause a 0.196 percentage decrease in urban construction land. In the short term, urban construction land will expand at 1.5%-3.5% per annum, with a probability of 85%. The probability of urban construction land expanding by 2.5% could come to 26%. For China and the premise of stable economic development, transforming urban growth patterns and adjusting industrial structure will improve the efficiency of urban construction land use. Government should implement urban land policies oriented towards improving land use efficiency, restraining the excessive expansion of urban construction land and controlling the scale of urban construction land within a reasonable range.