中文摘要：

识别风险认知因素对长期护理保险购买意愿的影响对刺激该险种有效需求具有重要意义。本文对抽样调查数据建立经济计量模型加以验证，实证结果表明：人们对长期护理发生概率及护理成本的认知程度以及非正式照料的替代对长期护理保险购买意愿有显著影响。为了进一步验证长期护理风险信息对购买意愿的影响，本文进行了一个基于风险告知的对比试验，即告知被试长期护理发生概率、月均护理成本、平均持续年限及日均家庭护理时间等风险因素客观信息后，对购买意愿转变概率进行实证分析发现：33．02％的被试者在风险告知后购买意愿由最初的“不愿意”转变为“愿意”。长期护理风险信息不足导致人们对该风险存在严重低估现象，从而抑制了长期护理保险的有效需求，并且，低估长期护理风险的被试者在风险告知后更可能转变购买意愿。最后，本文提出了若干刺激长期护理保险有效需求增加的政策建议。

英文摘要：

Identifying risk-perception factors affecting long-term care insurance purchase willing-ness is important for stimulating demands for such insurance coverage. The paper constructed a Probit model on the basis of individu- al survey data to verify it. The exponential results indicated respondent＇ s perception of the disability occurrence probability and the cost of long-term care significantly impacted on the long-term care insurance purchase willing- ness. Then the paper carried out a contrast experiment to verify the respondent＇ s willingness-switching after been informed of the average probability of long-term care, the average length of continued disability and the average monthly cost in a nursing home. We found that 33.02% originally unwilling respondents became willing to purchase long-term care insurance after acknowledging such information. Underestimating long-term risk factors is a conse- quence of informational deficiency which suppressed demands for long-term care insurance. Respondents previously underestimating long-term care risks are likely to becoming willing buyers after being informed of the statistics. At last, the paper put forwards some proposals for stimulating the demands for long-term care insurance.