运用我国1991—2008年省际面板数据,构建门槛模型实证分析外商直接投资(FDI)技术溢出对我国科技进步的促进作用。揭示研发投入强度、人力资本和基础设施等变量存在单门槛效应,技术差距存在双门槛效应,再用两阶段最小二乘回归说明了这些变量的门槛区间决定着FDI溢出促进各地区技术进步的效果差异,提出政策建议。
A threshold model is constructed to analyze the non-linear relationship between the technology development of China and technology spillovers of FDI from a perspective of absorptive capability,based on the provincial panel data of China during 1991 to 2008.The empirical results support the hypothesis of one threshold for RD density,human capital as well as infrastructure,two thresholds for technology gap.Then the estimated results of 2SLS regression model indicate the sufficient absorptive capability is the premise for FDI technology spillovers.Moreover,this paper uses graphs to describe the current status of these aspects of absorptive capacity in China's provinces;lastly it proposes relevant policy recommendations.