文章运用相关经济理论的分析框架,利用地理权重回归模型等进行分析表明,2000—2013年我国省域旅游经济及其子行业增长存在β趋同现象,技术溢出是增长趋同的主要原因。绝对β趋同过程中,总体旅游经济、旅行社、酒店和景区行业都在以不同的速度趋向区域均衡。各区域内部的绝对β趋同过程具明显的空间集聚特征,区域之间的趋同速度则呈现出较强的空间差异性。在趋同机制上,资本深化除对酒店行业在总体上产生了显著作用之外,对总体旅游经济及其他行业的增长趋同并未产生显著作用。技术溢出的显著作用及其空间集聚性特征,体现了相对落后地区通过对先进地区的快速学习和模仿,区域旅游业增长在日益趋向均衡。转变增长方式、提升资本深化的促进作用与溢出效应等,将有利于区域旅游业在动态均衡中实现可持续增长。
Based on the analytical framework of the new growth theory and the neoclassic growth theory, this paper tries to explore the growth convergence of regional tourism in China and its mechanism from 2000 to 2013. To investigate the differences in spatial agglomeration, the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is used. The key indicators of the empirical study include income per labor, capital per labor and the corresponding growth rate, etc. The study found the existence of growth convergence for regional tourism and its subsectors, for which the primary cause is technology spillover. According to the results of absolute 13-convergence, the growth of overall tourism and its subsectors, including the travel service industry, the hotel industry and the scenic area industry, realize regional balanced development at different convergence speeds. Moreover, the inter-regional differences in terms of convergence speed indicate the existence of obvious spatial agglomeration. Based on different perspectives, empirical analysis show that the conditions of the convergence mechanism of the neoclassic growth theory are met, but the mechanism doesn't have a significant effect on growth convergence. That is to say, the capital deepening of tourism and its subsectors - other than hotel industry - doesn't significantly affect growth convergence, which indicates that the recent expansion of investment accelerated the growth of tourism, but the capital deepening of tourism didn' t significantly raised the labor productivity. Analysis results therefore seem to show that the current extensive growth pattern of regional tourism is unsustainable. On the other hand, the neo- growth theory' s convergence mechanism significantly affects touristic growth convergence as well as that of its subsectors. According to the results of empirical studies, technology spillover' s significant effect and its characteristic of spatial agglomeration illustrate that it is effective for a relatively backward area to catch up with adva