中文摘要：

通过对西太平洋副热带高压变化的多年统计分析，发现其具有明显的年际和年代际变化特征，副高面积和强度均存在3～4a和11～14a显著周期，副高西伸脊点存在3～5a和准13a显著周期。副高面积和强度变化基本一致，与赤道中东太平洋海表温度（SST）存在显著的正相关关系，西伸脊点与中东太平洋海表温度变化则存在负的相关关系。赤道太平洋不同经度的SST与副高变化存在明显的差异，赤道中太平洋SST异常与副高变化的关系最为密切，东太平洋相对偏弱，而西太平洋呈现相反的相关关系。由此可以认为，赤道中太平洋异常SST变化是影响副高变化的关键区域。根据它们之间存在的密切关系，通过回归分析，建立了它们二者之间的回归方程，对2013年春夏季副高的强度和西伸脊点位置变化进行了预测，为2013年我国汛期降水预测提供一定的参考。

英文摘要：

Based on the statistical analysis,the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） has remarkable interannual and interdecadal variations. The area and the intensity of WPSH have obvious 3--4 a and 11--14 a periods, while the western ridge point has 3--5 a and quasi-13 a periods. The variations of the area of WPSH are similar with the intensity. Both of them have a strong positive correlation with the Sea Surface Temperature （SST） in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, negative correlation with the variation of the western ridge point. There are signifi cant differences between the variations of SST anomalies at different longitude of the equatorial Pacific and the vari- ations of WPSH. The variations of SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific have a close relationship with the variation of WPSH and it is not consanguineous between the SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and variations of WPSH. But the variations of SST anomalies in the western Pacific have a negative relationship with the variations of WPSH. So the SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific are a key factor for the variations of the WPSH. Based on the close relationship between them, a regression equation is obtained to predict the varia tions of the intensity and the western ridge point of WPSH in 2013, providing a reference for the flood season pre cipitation in 2013.