中文摘要：

采用卫星遥感资料反演出的海洋大气参数，应用通量算法（CORAER3．0），计算出了印度洋区域海气热通量，据此，分析研究了该区域海气热通量的年、年际和年代际变化特征。进而分析探讨了该区域热通量变化与南海夏季风爆发之间的联系。结果表明，北印度洋的热通量具有明显的季节变化特征，在一年四季最大热通量基本发生在阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾，但其量值具有明显的差异。特别是在南海季风爆发前后，其量值显著增大，4月份之前，平均潜热通量维持在110—120W／m。之间，4月份开始增大为130w／m2，5月份突然增大超过1．60W／m2。这种增大过程可能是影响南海夏季风或南亚夏季风爆发的关键。由分析可知，南海夏季风的爆发与北印度洋的热通量变化存在显著的相关关系，且它们均具有显著的年代际变化周期为16a。当3年前的5月份北印度洋区域海气潜热通量出现偏大（小）时，南海夏季风爆发时间会出现偏晚（早）的趋势。另外，为了预测南海夏季风爆发时间，建立了一个简单的回归方程，用来预测2012年南海夏季风爆发时间。预测结果表明，2012年南海夏季风爆发时间将会出现偏晚1—2候的趋势。

英文摘要：

The oceanic and atmospheric parameters are retrieved based on the satellite remote-sensing data using the neural network method, the air-sea heat fluxes over the Indian Ocean area were calculated by the advanced method of CORARE3.0 bulk algorithm. It was analysed that the average annual, the interannual and interdecadal characteristics of the air-sea heat fluxes in this area. Besides, the relationship between the air-sea heat fluxes and the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon（SCSM） is discussed primarily. The results indicate that the air-sea heat fluxes have obvious temporal and spatial variable characteristics. The air-sea heat fluxes have maximum values in the Arabian Sea and the Bengal Bay area, but the values have notable difference. The values of mean latent heat flux is between 110W/m2 and 120W/m2 before April, and then it begin increases to 130W/m2 in the April and it suddenly increases to more than 160W/m2 in the May, it reached maximum in June.The process of increase maybe the key factor to the SCSM or South Asian summer monsoon.There is close correlation between the onset of SCSM and air-sea heat fluxes in the North Indian Ocean. And they both have obvi- ous interdecadal period of 16a. The SCSM onset date is later（earlier） when the air-sea heat flux over the North Indian Ocean is larger（smaller）. The correlationship has an important implication for the prediction of the onset of SCSM. Based on these results, the linear regression equation is obtained to predict the onset date of the SCSM in 2012. The results indi- cate that the onset date in 2012 is later 1--2 pentad than the normal year.