中文摘要：

为评估地铁安全运营水平,为地铁运营管理部门提供线路长期运营以来的安全风险变化趋势,基于地铁运营部门提供的有关某地铁的,主要涵盖车辆、通信系统、信号系统、供电系统、机电系统、线路和轨道系统、消防系统、环境与设备监控系统、自动售检票系统、土建等10类重要设备设施故障的统计结果,采用动态分级法（DT）对该地铁线路运营2 a来的设备设施风险进行分级,将地铁综合风险等级划分为7级,得到综合风险等级和风险逐月变化趋势。结果表明：综合风险分级结果与设备设施故障的变化趋势基本吻合,利用该方法可得到地铁运营的安全风险变化趋势。

英文摘要：

In order to estimate the safety level of the metro operation and provide the risk trend for the safety department of the metro,the data on equipment and facilities failures of a certain subway line,provided by the department concerned were analyzed using the dynamic classification method.The data reflect failures of vehicle system,communication system,signaling system,power supply system,mechanical and electrical system,line and rail system,fire protection system,equipment monitoring control system,automatic fare collection,and civil engineering.The safety level of the subway line operation was divided into seven grades,and the grade of the integrated risk for each month as well as the risk trend were obtained.The results show that the integrated risk trend basically agrees with the equipment failures.The dynamic classification method can provide the risk trend of the metro operation,and can be applied in metros in different cities.