中文摘要：

主动配电网内分布式电源出力波动性大、负荷可调,传统的确定性模型已不再能准确地对其进行风险评估。建立主动配电网中不确定性因素的模型,采用拟蒙特卡罗（QMC）模拟法抽取Sobol确定性低偏差点列,以随机潮流计算为工具,对主动配电网的节点电压越限情况进行模拟。算例表明,相同抽样次数下拟蒙特卡罗法的计算结果比蒙特卡罗法更接近真解。

英文摘要：

Because of the large output fluctuation of distributed generators and the adjustable loads in the active distribution network,the traditional deterministic model can be no longer used to accurately assess its risk. Models are built for the uncertain factors of active distribution network,QMC（Quasi-Monte Carlo） simulation method is adopted to select the Sobol deterministic low-discrepancy sequence,and probabilistic load flow calculation is carried out to simulate the nodal overvoltage of active distribution network. Case study shows that,with same sampling times,the calculative result by the proposed method is closer to the true solution than that by Monte Carlo method.