中文摘要：

当前资本存量估算的一个重要不足是假定资本和折旧变化平稳，这无法反映中国经济发展过程中巨大的结构变迁。本文引入状态空间方程，采用将资本存量和折旧定义为观测信号的方式，使之可以反映中国经济结构性变迁的影响，从而改变了以往的投资和折旧平稳性假定。研究结果表明，中国持续的制度变革和国有企业改革、乃至经济波动等均对经济结构产生重要影响，导致中国资本存量和折旧并不像西方成熟市场经济体系下那样平稳，而是随着经济结构变革出现剧烈波动。空间状态方程估算的信号序列很好地反映了这种波动。因此，基于卡尔曼滤波对中国经济结构变革中资本存量和折旧的估算，更加符合中国现实经济发展状况，同时也充分表明，伴随着经济结构的变革，资本存量和折旧的变化是一个动态过程。

英文摘要：

The estimation of capital stock is the basis for economic growth studies. However, present researches of capital stock of China could not reflect the structural change in Chinese economic system, which are basic characteristic of development progress and may cause serious consequence to capital stock estimation. This thesis uses the state space model and Kalman Filter theory to re-estimate the capital stock of China so as to reflect the rapid structural change in Chinese economic system. The outcome shows that continuous institutional change, reform of state-owned enterprises, financial crisis, and even political fluctuation imposes important influence on structural change of Chinese economic system and thus results in unstable change of capital accumulation and depreciation. However, these drastic fluctuations can be captured by Kalman Filter signal and the outcome as a whole can represent practical situation of China.