笔者构建了考虑价格传导时滞的投入产出价格影响模型,编制了涉农产业投入产出表,据此测算了农产品价格波动的影响。考虑时滞的投入产出价格影响模型揭示了在农产品价格上涨的影响下,涉农产业和非涉农产业部门之间是如何通过价格调整达到最终均衡的。从整体上看,涉农产业各部门产品受农产品价格上涨的影响要大于非涉农产业各部门产品,而农产品加工制造业各部门受到的影响最大。
This article builds the input-output price model by considering the time lag of price transmission and estimates the influence of fluctuation of agricultural products prices based on input-output table of agribusiness. It reveals how equilibrium can be achieved by sectors of agribusiness and non-agribusiness through price adjustment when agricultural products price rises. As a whole, agricultural products price rise has more influence on sector of agribusiness than non-agribusiness. Among these sectors, agricultural production sector is influenced most.