本文利用2005—2011年中国55个大中城市的面板数据实证分析了住房公积金制度对房价的影响,进而系统地分析了公积金制度的住房福利效应。实证结果表明住房公积金制度会显著促进房价上涨,当前如果取消住房公积金制度的话,将会使房价下降13.5%。考虑到这样一个预期外的效应后,住房公积金制度对加入这一制度的城镇居民购房的贡献度仍有25%,而对于未加入住房公积金制度的城镇居民,这一制度会使他们在购房时付出13.5%的额外成本。
Using the panel data of 55 cities during 2005-2011, this article carries out an empirical study to analyze the impact of housing provident fund system (HPFS) on house price and people's housing welfare systematically. The empirical results show that HPFS has positive effect on house price significantly. If HPFS were canceled, house price would decrease by 13.5%. Taking into account of such an unexpected effect, HPFS has 25% contribution to house consumption for residents involved in the system. However HPFS leads to a 13. 5% extra cost for residents who are not involved in the system.