本文以2007-2011年中国A股上市公司的分析师盈余预测为样本,检验了在券商经纪业务驱动下公司业绩变动对分析师预测盈余特征的影响。研究发现,第一,相对于业绩下降的上市公司,分析师对业绩增长上市公司的盈余预测更准确,预测乐观性更低;第二,分析师对业绩增长公司的预测分歧度更小:第三,从分析师的盈余预测修正过程来看,分析师对业绩增长上市公司预测的修正过程比较平滑,而且修正幅度较小。以往的研究文献发现券商经纪业务对分析师的预测准确性、乐观性有显著影响,本文的结论表明经纪业务对分析师盈余预测的影响随着公司业绩的不同而不同。本文的研究结果为全面理解证券分析师盈利预测行为提供了新的经验证据,同时为Hayes(1998)的理论模型提供了经验支持。
Using the data on the analysts' EPS forecast of the A Shares in China between 2007 and 2011, this paper investigates how the forecast is affected by the companies' performance change when both the brokerages and the analysts are driven by the profit from the commission fees. We find that, firstly, compared with analysts' forecast of companies with bad performance, the forecasts of good performance companies are more accurate and less optimistic. Secondly, the analysts' forecast is more consis- tent for good performance companies. Thirdly, analysts' forecast adjustments of bad companies are smoother and smaller in earlier period. Previous literature documents that trading commission incentives have a significant impact on analysts' forecast accuracy and forecast optimism. This paper further shows this effect is contingent on the covered companies' performance. The conclusions provide new empirical evidence for us to understand the behavior of financial analysts' EPS forecast. And it provides new support for the Hayes (1998) analytical model.