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中文摘要：
通过利用上海人口普查和1％人口抽样调查数据及历年统计年鉴数据，将人口精算学和系统动力学模型通过Vensim表函数有机结合，实验模拟了6种情景的养老保险改革政策，在对养老基金收支及缺口预测结果曲线趋势分析基础上发现，“镇保”、“综保”并入“城保”的政策将会对上海原有养老保险系统产生较大正面影响，但同时也为未来基金的可持续发展埋下了隐患；2040年左右基金将面临退休潮和支付跃升，75％的政策强度应为最佳政策选择．
英文摘要：
By the use of census and 1% sampling investigation population data and yearbook data, combi- ning the population actuarial science and system dynamics model with table function, six pension reform policy scenes are simulated. On the basis of pension gap forecast curve trend analysis, the new pension system merging policy may not only have a positive influence on Shanghai pension system in short term, but also have a negative influence on the persistence of pension in long term. Pension system may face a retire tide and a payment jump. 75% policy strength may be the best choice. The conclusion has important theoretical significance and applying value for the Shanghai pension reform policy research.
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