中文摘要：

介绍了正反负矩阵权重分析法的基本原理和分析过程．结合西藏地区泥石流发育分布规律，建立了泥石流危险性区划判别模型。模型中选取地质构造、地貌和气候条件（包括降水强度、年均地温和冰川水文）为影响因子，同时考虑到研究区内基础资料少的限制，再选取既能表征影响因子强度又能直接获取得困于参数进行研究。通过对各影响因子的分区赋值，利用GIS空间分析技术，对西藏地区泥石流危险性分区进行了研究。结果表明，西藏东南部泥石流危险度最强，从整个西藏地区来看危险等级由东南向西北递减。

英文摘要：

This paper has introduced the principle of matrix analysis to determine the weights of correlative factors involved in debris flows. And on the basis of investigating debris flow in Tibet, with the limitation of data, we choose landform, geology, climate as influence factors, including annual rainfall, annual average ground temperature（ and represented by air temperature in practice） and intensity of glacier thaw. Then, supported by GIS, we have studied the hazard zoning of debris flow in Tibet. The result shows that the Southeast of Tibet is the most dangerous region and the hazard degree descends from Southeast to Northwest.