中文摘要：

选择某集团下属大型矿井为对象,阐述了煤矿生产系统的定义并采用情景分析法划分了两种决策情境。分析指出,当前煤矿生产系统决策存在决策主体分散、决策模式落后等问题,且市场供需环境直接影响生产决策目标;煤矿的理性生产决策为供大于求情境下追求成本最小化、供小于求情境下追求利润最大化;基于模糊集理论,采用动态线性规划、状态转移方程分别构建出成本最小化和利润最大化的决策理论模型,为提高煤炭企业的生产决策科学性和有效性提供解决思路。

英文摘要：

In order to adapt to the new normal of coal industry,the article selects a group subordinate large mine as the object,defines the coal mine production system and uses the scenario analysis method to divide into two decision-making situations.The analysis points out that the current coal mine production system decision-making problem such as decision-making dispersive,backward decision model.The market supply and demand directly affect the production decision goal so the rational coal production decisions-making are the pursuit of cost minimization in oversupply situation and the pursuit of profit maximization in short supply situation.Then this paper respectively constructs decision theory model of minimizing cost and maximizing profit;based on the fuzzy sets theory,dynamic linear programming and the state transition equation,aiming at improving the scientific and effectiveness of coal production decision.