中文摘要：

包括地估计 fractionated 太空船，一个评价工具在模块化的进化随机的模型驾驶的无常下面基于生命周期模拟被开发。首先， fractionated 太空船名称和建筑学被澄清，并且评价标准被分析。风险的平均数和标准差调整了生命周期费用和在场的网价值(NPV ) 被定义为评价度量标准。第二， fractionated 太空船缩放模型简短被描述，由风险的详细讨论列在后面调整生命周期费用和 NPV 模型。第三，在 fractionated 太空船生命周期上的无常来源与概率被分析并且当模特儿理论。然后，按年代先后的生命周期模拟过程被详细说明，并且模拟模块与面向对象的方法论被开发建立评价工具。前面的无常模型集成于这些模拟模块，因此随机的目标地位能与生命周期时间安排被模仿并且演变。调查 fractionated 太空船因为一个假想地球观察使命与建议评价工具被执行的案例研究，和结果证明那分别度和发射表明在费用和 NPV 上有大影响，并且通常 fractionated 太空船是比它在无常效果下面的整体的对应物更先进的。最后，一些结论被给，未来研究话题被加亮。

英文摘要：

To comprehensively assess fi＇actionated spacecraft, an assessment tool is developed based on lifecycle simulation under uncertainty driven by modular evolutionary stochastic models. First, fractionated spacecraft nomenclature and architecture are clarified, and assessment criteria are analyzed. The mean and standard deviation of risk adjusted lifecycle cost and net present value （NPV） are defined as assessment metrics. Second, fractionated spacecraft sizing models are briefly described, followed by detailed discussion on risk adjusted lifecycle cost and NPV models. Third, uncertainty sources over fractionated spacecraft life- cycle are analyzed and modeled with probability theory. Then the chronological lifecycle simulation process is expounded, and simulation modules are developed with object oriented methodology to build up the assessment tool. The preceding uncertainty models are integrated in these simulation modules, hence the random object status can be simulated and evolve with lifecycle timeline. A case study to investigate the fractionated spacecraft for a hypothetical earth observation mission is carried out with the proposed assessment tool, and the results show that fractionation degree and launch manifest have great influence on cost and NPV, and generally fractionated spacecraft is more advanced than its monolithic counterpart under uncertainty effect. Finally, some conclusions are given and future research topics are highlighted.