中文摘要：

利用中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所业务运行的CMAQ模式输出的PM2.5浓度预报资料，结合HYSPLIT4模式，根据Poirot的输送概率场定义输送强度，对2012年12月-2013年3月广州番禺大气成分站PM2.5区域输送影响进行分析．结果表明，输送强度与PM2.5实测值的变化趋势具有很好的一致性，输送强度的计算较为合理；广州番禺地区的PM2.5主要受外来源输送的影响，本地贡献率仅为31％；珠三角地区（包括广州）贡献率为73％，珠三角以外贡献率为27％；输送通道有3条，分别为北路、东北路和沿海路．

英文摘要：

On the basis of the operational forecasting data of PM2.5 output by CMAQ model run in Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, and by using the HYSPLIT4 model, the regional transported effect of PM2.5 at Guangzhou Panyu Atmospheric Composition Station from Dec 2012 to Mar 2013 was analyzed. The transported intension was defined according to Poirot＇s transport probability. The results are the following. The variation tendency of transport intension was consistent with the variation tendency of the observed data of PM2.5. The calculation results for transport intension are relatively reasonable. The concentration of PM2.5 in Panyu of Guangzhou was mainly influenced by the external sources. The local pollution contribution of PM2.5 was only 31% , and contributions from the Pearl River Delta （ PRD, including Guangzhou） and the outside of the PRD were 73% and 27% , respectively. There were three transport channels of PM2.5, the north, northeast, and coastal paths.