利用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型,选取重庆市1995-2006年经济与工业污染数据,建立了单位GDP污染排放量模型和人均GDP污染排放量模型,分析各类典型污染指标与GDP增长的演替关系。研究发现:重庆市单位GDP污染排放总量呈下降趋势,表明技术进步和产业结构的调整已经产生了明显的环境效益;近年经济发展与环境污染水平的演替轨迹与库兹涅茨曲线特征的吻合效果不理想,所选各项指标的二次拟合曲线都没有转折点的出现,说明重庆市还应该制定有效的环境政策和措施,以保证经济和环境持续健康发展。
In recent years Chongqing has made rapid economic development. But it also faces an enormous pressure in energy-saving and carbon emission reduction especially in the industrial fields. This paper constructs the models of Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) with time series data of Chongqing from 1995 to 2006. The basic data include the industrial waste discharge per unit GDP, industrial waste discharge per capita GDP and corresponding environmental data. The relationship between typical environmental indexes and increase of GDP is analyzed. The results show that the industrial waste discharge per unit GDP displays general downward trend, which indicates the technological progress and readjustment of industrial structure have yielded significant environmental benefit. Meanwhile, on the whole the relationship of economic development and environmental pollution in recent years donot conform with the obvious characteristics of EKC. The fitting EKC curves of all environmental indexes have no turning point. So the efficient environmental policy and huge environmental investment of Chongqing have to make the economic and environment develop sustainable and healthily.