中文摘要：

针对WRF模式中各非绝热物理过程,选用不同的参数化方案,对2009年6月29—30日一次梅雨锋暴雨过程做24 h降水预报的敏感性试验,并组成18个成员做物理集合预报,分析了实况与模拟的24 h降水量及其TS评分和离散度。结果表明,WRF模式的物理集合预报可成功模拟出3个暴雨中心的位置及强度;选用Lin et al微物理方案、MRF行星边界层方案和Betts-Miller-Janjic积云对流方案对湖北省西南部地区暴雨中心的位置及强度的模拟最好;3个暴雨中心均对应于离散度的大值中心,在降水较强时段其离散度也较大;不同集合成员在某时段预报的降水量可较好体现该时段的降水概率,而由物理集合预报得到的逐时降水量则可为定时降水预报提供依据。

英文摘要：

Based on different parameterization schemes of WRF V3.3, sensitivity experiment of 24 hr precipitation forecast about a Meiyu front rainstorm case during 29-30, June, 2009 are studied, and the physical ensemble prediction are made. The results of the 24 hr precipitation, threat score(TS) of the real and experiment and the dispersion values between them are analyzed. It shows that the physical ensemble prediction successfully simulates the position and intensity of the three storm centers. The Lin et al, MRF and New-Kain-Fritsch parameterization schemes are the best choices to predict the heavy rain center in southwestern Hubei. In addition, there are large anomalous dispersion values existing in the storm centers during the period of heavy precipitation. Furthermore, different ensemble member can reflect the probability of precipitation well for a certain period, while the physical ensemble prediction can provide a basis for timing precipitation forecast.