中文摘要：

Corresponding author.Qiang Liu was born in 1983. He is a Ph.D. student in the College of Information System and Management at National University of Defense and Technology. He is also a join-student of School of Computer Science at McGill University, Canada. Currently his research interests are system pattern recognition, system reliability, Bayesian method, and prognostics and health management.E-mail： qiangliu.mcgill @ gmail.com Guang Jin was born in 1973. He is a Ph.D. and an associate professor in National University of Defense and Technology. His research interests are system modeling and simulation, system reli- ability estimation, experiment and evaluation, and prognostics and health management. E-mail： kingbayes@21cn.com Jinglun Zhou was born in 1955. He is a Ph.D. and a professor in National University of Defense and Technology. His research interests are system reliability, risk assessment and evaluation, information management and decision, failure diagnostics, and prognostics and health management. E-mail： jlzhou@nudt.edu.cn Quan Sun was born in 1973. He is a Ph.D. and an associate professor in National University of Defense and Technology. He is also a visiting scholar of School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology, USA. His research interests are risk assessment and evaluation, physics of reliability, and failure diagnostics. E-mail： quansun.nudt @gmail.com Min Xi was born in 1979. He is a Ph.D. and a lecturer in Xi＇an Jiaotong University. His research interests are system modeling and simulation, complex wireless sensor network, and failure diagnostics. E-mail： ximin.xjtu @gmail.com