中文摘要：

为应对人口老龄化加剧带来的一系列社会问题,我国政府继2013年底出台＂单独二孩＂政策之后,又于近期推出了＂全面两孩＂政策,以减缓人口老龄化的进程。采用Leslie人口预测模型对＂全面两孩＂政策后的人口增量与人口结构进行预测,进而分析该政策对人口老龄化的影响。结果表明：在理想假设的前提下,＂全面两孩＂政策将对人口老龄化产生一定缓解作用,但依据＂单独二孩＂政策的实施效果作进一步分析发现,受一系列现实因素的影响,＂全面两孩＂政策对人口老龄化的缓解作用并不显著。为此,应实行精神鼓励和物质激励并重的措施,大力宣传和落实＂全面两孩＂政策,减轻家庭抚养二孩的经济负担,改善社会抚养环境等,使良好的人口政策真正对老龄化发挥有效的缓解作用。

英文摘要：

In response to a series of social problems caused by aging population, the Chinese government recently launched the ＂full two-child＂ policy in order to slow down the process of population aging after the introduction of the ＂single second child＂ policy by the end of 2013. Using Leslie population forecast model, the paper forecasts the incremental population and population structure influenced by the ＂full two-child＂ policy, and then analyzes the impact of this policy on aging population. The results show that： in an ideal hypothetical premise, the ＂full two-child＂ policy will have some relief on aging population, but the further analysis of the implementation effect of the ＂single second child＂ policy shows that due to a series of practical factors that influence the ＂full two-child＂ policy, its mitigation effect on aging population is not signifi- cant. Therefore, we should implement the spirit of encouragement and material incentives of both measures to vigorously promote and implement the ＂full two-child ＂ policy, to reduce the financial burden of families raising two children and improve social environment, so that a good aging population policy will truly play an effective role in mitigation.