中文摘要：

从具有中国特色的＂央票＂回收流动性功能、利率市场化以及商业银行自选择的角度分析,运用协整、Granger因果检验及VAR模型,分析了央票利率对长、短期基准利率的影响关系。得出以下结论：第一,央票利率对长期国债利率、短期Shibor利率存在长期稳定关系,但影响作用受限;第二,央票充当基准利率功能不断弱化;第三,以2012年为例,由于＂双顺差＂格局的缓解,在以上因素的影响下,导致该年份无任何一笔新央票的发行。

英文摘要：

From the angle of the central ticket recovery of mobility, the interest rate marketing, and commercial banks choosing, this article analyzes the relationship between the central bank bills rate and long and short-term interest rates. It arrives at the following conclusions： First, the central bank bills rate on long-term treasury rates and the interest rates of short-term Shibor have a long-term stable relationship, but limited influence; second, central bank bills serving as a benchmark interest rate are weakening; third, the impact of the above factors, coupled with the mitigation of the pattern of the ＂double surplus＂ in 2012, results in no new issue of central bank bills in a full year.