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整合模型还是占优启发式模型? 从齐当别模型视角进行的检验
  • ISSN号:0439-755X
  • 期刊名称:《心理学报》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学;哲学宗教—心理学] C934[经济管理—管理学;社会学]
  • 作者机构:[1]中国科学院心理研究所,北京100101, [2]宁波大学教师教育学院,宁波315211, [3]中山大学逻辑与认知研究所,广州510275
  • 相关基金:中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KSCX2-YW-R-130); 国家自然科学基金项目(NSFC:70871110); 北京市重点学科建设等项目资助
中文摘要:

实验从齐当别模型的视角,通过对决策过程反应时的考察分别对以累积预期理论(cumulative prospect theory)为代表的整合模型和启发式模型家族的重要成员--占优启发式模型(priority heuristic)--进行检验。结果表明,决策过程反应时并未随着占优启发式模型所假定的决策步骤的增加而变慢;也未随着选项之间整体值差值的变大而变快;模糊决策过程的反应时反而快于风险决策过程的反应时。无论是以累积预期理论为代表的整合模型还是占优启发式模型均不能满意地描述和解释人们的实际决策过程,而齐当别模型则能解释大部分实验结果。文章建议多角度、多指标探讨人们的决策过程,检验、修改、完善,以及建立新的启发式模型或决策过程模型(process model),以增进对人们如何进行风险决策的理解。

英文摘要:

Theories intended to describe decision making under risk and uncertainty can be classified as two families according to their theoretical basis:the integrative model and heuristic model.The integrative model postulates that the decision maker is both willing and able to combine information from different dimensions through two fundamental processes:weighting and summing.The heuristic model assumes that people do not integrate these kinds of information but rely on a repertoire of simple decision strategies—called heuristics—to make inferences,choices,estimations,and other decisions.A total of four experiments were conducted to compare these two sets of competing models from the view of the equate-to-differentiate model(Li,1994,2004a,2004b) by using a response time approach.Experiment 1 re-examined the priority heuristic by using the decision questions employed by Brandstatter,Gigerenzer and Hertwig(2006),but failed to duplicate their results.The priority heuristic predicted that the increase of reasons(steps) required would be associated with the increase of time for making a choice.Experiment 2 tested the priority heuristic by manipulating the number of reasons(steps) assumed by the priority heuristic and the difference between two options on the best-outcome/worst-outcome dimension assumed by the equate-to-differentiate model.It was revealed that the decision time did not increase with the increasing number of reasons(steps) assumed by the priority heuristic but decreased with the increased difference between two options on the best-outcome/worst-outcome dimension.These results obtained in Experiments 1 and 2 were not friendly to the priority heuristic model.Experiments 3 and 4 were designed to test the integrative model.Experiment 3 tested the integrative model by comparing the decision time under risk and under ambiguity.Interestingly,the average decision time under risk was much longer than that under ambiguity.This was contrary to the implications of the integrative model because

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期刊信息
  • 《心理学报》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院
  • 主办单位:中国心理学会 中国科学院心理研究所
  • 主编:张侃
  • 地址:北京市朝阳区林萃路16号院
  • 邮编:100101
  • 邮箱:xuebao@psych.ac.cn
  • 电话:010-64850861
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:0439-755X
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:11-1911/B
  • 邮发代号:82-12
  • 获奖情况:
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国人文社科核心期刊,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库,中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:33136