中文摘要：

针对额济纳绿洲生态环境脆弱复杂以及资源、环境、人口和发展之间的矛盾关系，运用系统动力学原理，建立了额济纳绿洲土地承载力系统动力学模型；以额济纳2004年统计数据为基础，预测了未来20a内3种水土开发速率、投入水平以及人口增长速率与3种生活类型（温饱型、小康型和富裕型）组成的9种方案的土地承载力变化；最后，提出了提高土地承载力的若干对策．

英文摘要：

Aiming at the fragility and complexity of ecological environment and the contradiction relationships of resources, environment, population and development in Ejina oasis, a dynamic model of land carrying capacity by using system dynamics principle is developed and the changes of land carrying capacity in the future 20 years of 9 scenarios consisted by 3 water and soil resources development rates, investment levels, population growth rates 3 living levels on the basis of the statistic data of Ejina oasis in 2004 are predicted. Finally, countermeasures and ways for enhancing land carrying capacity are put forward.