中文摘要：

目的：了解江西省中医药需求现状及发展趋势。方法：采集江西省2002~2012年中医药需求相关数据,构建需求分析数据库;采用ARIMA模型进行时间序列分析,并预测2013~2017年江西省中医药需求的发展趋势。数据分析在SAS9.1.3软件平台上进行。结果：江西省中医类医院床位数、在岗职工数、卫生技术人员数、总收入等指标均呈逐年增长趋势,与此相反,中医执业医师占执业医师总数百分比呈逐年下降趋势,中药收入占药品收入百分也比较低。结论：江西省中医类医院规模在不断扩大,而中医药人才的需求并不大,中医有在中医类医院中被边缘化的趋向。

英文摘要：

Objective： To understand the current situation and development trend of traditional Chinese medicine （TCM） in Jiangxi province. Method： Collected the data about TCM demands of Jiangxi province in 2002 -2012, and built the analysis database. Through time series analysis with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average （ARIMA） model to forecast the trends of Jiangxi TCM de- mands in 2013 -2017. Data analysis performed on SAS9.1.3 software platform. Result： The number of hospital beds, staff and work- ers, health professionals, total income and other indicators of TCM hospital in Jiangxi province showed a year on year growth trend. On the contrary, the percentage of TCM practitioners of the total number of practicing physicians declining trend, herbal medicines income accounted for a lower percentage of total drug income. Conclusion ： Jiangxi TCM demand continues to expand, but the TCM professional demands are not large. TCM has the trend of being marginalized.