中文摘要：

基于1990年、2000年和2010年贵州省土地利用数据,运用CA-Markov模型模拟贵州省2020年和2030年土地利用状况,并以1990年、2000年、2010年、2020年和2030年土地利用数据为基础,研究了不同地貌类型的土地利用时空变化特征。结果表明：11990—2030年,贵州省土地利用变化表现出耕地和未利用地存量降低,林地、草地、水域和建设用地量增加的特点。研究区各地貌单元的土地利用变化也具有类似的特征。盆（坝）地的土地利用程度综合指数先降低后增加,而其他地貌的土地利用程度综合指数均呈下降趋势。不同地貌的土地利用变化量和动态度差异都较为突出。2各地貌的稳定型图谱面积和比例均最大;盆（坝）的稳定型图谱和后期变化型比例大于其他地貌,而丘陵、低山、中山和高原的前期变化型比例高于盆（坝）;各地貌的持续变化型和中间变化型比例均较小,盆（坝）地和丘陵的后期变化型分布优势突出,低山、中山和高原分别具有前期变化型、中间变化型和持续变化型的分布优势。3自然条件优劣、不同经济发展速度和退耕还林还草政策是影响贵州省不同地貌土地利用变化差异的主要因素。

英文摘要：

The land use maps in 2020 and 2030 were simulated by using CA- Markov model（ cellular automaton-markov） based on the land use data of Guizhou Province in 1990,2000 and 2010,and the spatio-temporal patterns of the land use changes according to landform characteristics were characterized by using these land use data together,The result indicates that the characteristics of land use change in study area was an increase in forest lands,grasslands,water area and construction lands accompanying a decrease of farmland and unused land. Land use change of each landform in study area had the similar features. Land use degree composite index of basin firstly increased and then decreased. Land use degree composite index of other landforms decreased. There were significant differences in variation and dynamic degree of land use of different landform types. The area and ratio of the stable model in each landform were the biggest.The stable model and post-change model of basin were greater than other landforms. However,the pre-change model of hills,low mountains,middle mountains and plateau were higher than basin. The ratio of continuous change model and intermediate change model were small. There was distribution-advantage of post-change model in basin and hills. The pre-change model,intermediate change model and continuous change model were the distribution advantage of TUPU in low mountains,middle mountains and plateau,respectively. 3 The merits of natural conditions,the different pace of economic development and the policy implementation of grain for green project were the main factors affecting the difference of land use change in each landform.