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中文摘要：
当前我国正处于老龄化进程中,人口老龄化将是我国社会的常态.住宅需求是居民最重要的消费需求,它直接来源于人口的居住消费需求和投资投机性需求,必然受到人口因素的影响与制约.文章首先将住房消费主体按照购房消费行为特征分为青年人,中年人和老年人,并结合世代交叠模型和一般均衡模型构建老龄化对我国城市住宅需求影响的理论模型.其次,运用计量经济学方法估计参数.最后,运用GAMS软件拟合和预测城市住宅需求的变化趋势,得出老龄化增加城市住宅需求.
英文摘要：
At present, our country is in the process of aging, which would be the normality of our society. Housing demand is the most important consumer demand which comes directly from the population residential consumption demand and investment demand. So, it is influenced and restricted by population factors. Firstly, based on housing consumption behavior characteristics, the residential demand subjects can be divided into the young, the middle-aged and the elderly. Moreover, the theoretical model of the impact of aging on urban housing demand in China is established by the combination of the overlapping generation model and the general equilibrium model. Then econometric methods are employed to estimate parameters. Finally, this paper uses GAMS software to stimulate and forecast the change trend of urban housing demand and find that aging can increase urban housing demand to some extent.
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