中文摘要：

把全国31个省市1979-2007年有关粮食生产的面板数据分成三个阶段,引入变截距双对数模型对不同阶段自然灾害对粮食产量的影响进行计量分析。结果表明三个阶段中自然灾害对粮食产量的负面影响均较显著,而且自然灾害对粮食产量影响的程度呈不断下降的趋势。

英文摘要：

On the basis of the panel data of related grain yield of 31 provinces from 1979 to 2007,which are divided into three stages,this paper analyses impact of natural disasters on grain yield in different stages in China using double logarithm and changed intercept model.The result indicates that negative effects of natural disasters on grain yield in three stages are significant and the effect has a descending trend.