中文摘要：

本文充分考虑国内商品市场周期波动和境内外市场联动关系，通过探究期货市场风险溢价来源，构建期货市场基差变动的宏观经济因素模型。实证研究发现，市场利率、股权风险溢价等宏观经济因素以及境外期货市场价格变动对国内期货基差有正向影响，且向上波动阶段期货基差受当期宏观经济信息冲击大于向下波动阶段，受前期基差影响则要弱于向下波动阶段；中国宏观经济因素对境外期货基差变动影响显著，但弱于对境内期货基差变动的影响。

英文摘要：

Taking business cycle and comovement between domestic markets and foreign markets into consideration, a macroeconomic factors model of commodity futures basis will be constructed, by exploring source of risk premium, and empirical work will be conducted. Results show that, macroeconomic factors of market interest, equity risk premium and price change of futures have significant positive effects on basis of domestic futures markets, and have greater effects on futures basis during bull market than during bear market, while lag-basis has greater effects on simultaneous futures basis during bear market than during bull market. Macroeconomic factors also have significant negative effect on basis of foreign futures markets, which varies across different commodities, and is even weaker than on basis of domestic markets.