中文摘要：

利用2006-2008年的逐日气候数据和实际冬小麦单产数据,借助GIS空间分析技术分析了江淮地区冬小麦的逐级生产潜力;通过GIS叠加分析,明确了冬小麦增产区域与幅度。研究表明：江淮地区冬小麦的2006-2008年光合生产潜力介于15 672 kg.hm-2～21 001 kg.hm-2之间,变化趋势是从北向南逐级递减。光温生产潜力介于8 311 kg.hm-2～11 072kg.hm-2之间,大体从江淮北部向南部呈递减趋势,区域的平均生产潜力为9 788 kg.hm-2。气候生产潜力介于5 876kg.hm-2～8 988 kg.hm-2,空间变化趋势为从江淮中部向周边呈递减趋势,区域的平均值为7 657 kg.hm-2。2006-2008年江淮地区冬小麦的实际产量为2 537 kg.hm-2～5 954 kg.hm-2,区域平均值为4 871 kg.hm-2,由此看出,实际的产量与潜在气候产量之间有较大的差距,江淮区域冬小麦存在一定增产空间。最后,针对江淮地区冬小麦生产情况,提出提高冬小麦生产的具体管理措施。

英文摘要：

The paper focused on potential productivity of winter wheat in Jianghuai area using the geographical information system（GIS） techniques based on daily climate data and practical yield of winter wheat from 2006 to 2008.The results showed that photosynthetic potential productivity of Jianghuai gradually decreased from the north to the south ranged from 15 672 to 21 001 kg·hm-2.The light-temperature potential productivity showed a similar decrease trend ranged from 8311 to 11 072 kg·hm-2,with an average of 9 788 kg·hm-2.While the climate potential productivity descended from the central to the circumjacent ranged from 5 876 to 8 988 kg·hm-2,with an average of 7657 kg·hm-2.However,practical yield of winter wheat in Jianghuai area ranged from 2537 to 5954 kg·hm-2,with an average of 4871 kg·hm-2.Apparent difference existed between the actual yield and potential productivity.Therefore,there is certain space to increase the yield of winter wheat.According to the actual production of winter wheat,some countermeasures were proposed for production improvement.