中文摘要：

本文以最短时间距离以及加权平均出行时间两种指标，其中后者以未来人口数为其加权因子，在对广州至香港之间廊道状区域的陆路交通网络现状通达性数据进行计算的基础上，对其潜在通达性及其空间格局进行预测分析。由此得出，穗港走廊内部的陆路网络潜在通达性呈现出同心环状态分布的空间格局，其潜在通达性水平以环心为最优，逐渐往外层递减；两种指标换算成通达性系数进行对比，发现利用未来人口数作为加权因子之后，走廊南部在整个网络的通达性地位得到了提升，但走廊北部的通达性地位却受到了削弱；穗港走廊潜在通达性空间格局比现状更加收敛，整体通达性水平得到提升，初始通达性水平越低的地方，提升的幅度越大。

英文摘要：

From the perspective of potential accessibility, according to the transport condition among the regions, this paper builds up the network model, and calculates, forecasts and analyses the potential spatial accessibility pattern in Guangzhou-Hong Kong Urban Corridor with integrated GIS tools, based on analyzing the current accessibility data in the landway transport network in Guangzhou-Hong Kong Urban Corridor, using the shortest time distance index and the weighted average travel time index. The latter index uses population in the future as its weighted factor. As a result, the potential accessibility of landway transport network in GuangzhouHong Kong Urban Corridor presents a concentric circle spatial pattern either the shortest time distance index or the weighted average travel time index, and the inner accessibility level is better. The accessibility level goes worse from the center to the periphery. The author transforms the results of these two indices into accessibility coefficients for the purpose of comparison. The results show that the accessibility status of the south corridor is improved and the north one is weakened taking the potential population factor into account. Finally, the potential accessibility level is compared with the current one. It is suggested that the former is more balanced that the latter, the overall accessibility level is improved, and the lower the original accessibility level is, the more it improved.