研究目标:探究欧盟否认中国市场经济地位,对中国、欧盟及世界经济的宏观、产业以及贸易的影响。研究方法:将“非市场经济地位”折算为“反倾销等值税”,利用全球贸易分析模型针对欧盟对中国征收的进口关税进行计算。研究发现:欧盟否认中国市场经济地位不会缓解欧盟就业压力,反而使欧盟出口在中国总进口占比下降0.01个百分点;同时,全世界资源配置效率下降,进一步导致全世界整体福利下降;虽然欧盟否认中国市场经济地位使中国对欧盟出口减少约50.6亿美元,但中国向世界其他地区的出口量均有所上升;而且有利于中国产业结构优化,对供给侧改革有一定的激励作用。研究创新:将“非市场经济地位”折算为“反倾销等值税”。研究价值:在研究非数值变量时(如市场经济地位),可利用其直接影响的变量(反倾销)造成的直接经济损失,折算为适当的指标变量(等值关税)。中国对世界经济的贡献和影响巨大,市场经济地位不容否认。
Objectives: This paper explores the economic impacts of China's non-market e- conomy status to China and other major economies, the influences on the welfare and output of China and EU, and how trade flows had changed because of the non-market economy sta- tus of China, since the EU did not support the status of China's market economy in 12th May, 2016. Research Methods: In this paper, the authors used anti-dumping tariff-equivalent (more accurately, tariff-power-equivalent) to measure the non-market economy status, and used the tariff-equivalent as the initial shock to GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) to simulate the effects of China's non-market economy status. Research Findings: the EU's de- nial of China's market economy status results in an overall decline in the welfare of the world; but it will not have a significant negative impact on China's economy, and the non- market economy status can even incentivize industry upgrading in China; meanwhile, the EU's denial of China's market economy status would reduce China's trade dependence on the EU and reduce trade risks. Therefore, China does not have to be too panic for the denial of the market economy status from EU or other countries. Research Innovations: the authors used anti-dumping tariff-equivalent to measure the non-market economy status. Research Value: In the study of non-numerical variables (such as market economy status), we can use the losses caused by another variable (anti-dumping) that influenced by this non-numerical varia- ble directly, and convert the losses to the appropriate pointer variable (equivalent tariff).