中文摘要：

当前中国经济已经进入了＂新常态＂的发展阶段,在未来能源消费、能源强度和碳排放等方面将表现出区别过去30多年的新特征,在此将这些能源方面的新特征称为＂能源‘新常态’＂。在能源＂新常态＂的背景下,展望了＂十三五＂及2030年能源经济发展情况,从节能减排和降低能源消耗强度的角度,利用情景分析法预测2030年前中国能源消费、能源消耗强度和碳排放量。结果显示：在基准情景和节能减排政策措施严于预期的低碳发展情景下,碳排放峰值都有望在2030年前出现。

英文摘要：

China＇s economy has already entered the ＂New Normal＂ phase, during which some new characteristics of energy consumption, energy intensity and carbon emissions that are different from those of the past three decades may emerge. In this paper,these new characteristics of China＇s energy consumption and supply are defined as energy ＂New Normal＂. In the context of the energy ＂New Normal＂, the development of China＇s energy economy during the ＂13th Five-Year Plan＂ and by 2030 is predicted.Besides,from the perspectives of changes in energy intensity and carbon emissions, a scenario analysis has been performed to forecast the changes in energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2030. The results suggest that, in the benchmark scenario and the low-carbon development scenario, under which the regulations on energy saving and emissions reduction are tighter than expected,the peak of carbon emissions would occur before 2030.