本文构建了一个包含银行金融中介资金供求耦合金融摩擦的简单动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型,目的是考察非熟悉的违约冲击是如何造成资金资源在银行中介和非金融借款者之间重新配置,并最终加速传导到实体经济、引起经济波动的。运用中国微观经济数据进行模拟发现,商业银行不良贷款率表征的违约冲击造成了中国经济活动巨大而持久的下降:以2014年第一季度为基期,经过一年半时间截至2015年第三季度,经济总产出和资产价格都比基期下降了0.4%,商业银行存贷利差则从3%上升至6%左右,这一结果与当前中国经济现实基本吻合。因此,面临宏观经济和银行业资产质量下行压力,我们应警惕可能由源自金融中介自身的金融冲击及其资金供求耦合金融摩擦等金融市场因素诱发并加速传播的经济周期波动。同时,要密切关注金融中介资产负债表项目的变化,加强对金融行业的监管力度,从而保证金融经济稳定。
In order to study how default shocks redistribute fund resources between the banking intermediaries and non-financial borrowers, and ultimately how these shocks are accelerated and transmitted to the real economy and cause economic fluctuations, we incorporate the banking intermediary's financial frictions coupling financial capital's supply and demand into a simple dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using China's microeconomic data simulation, we found that the default shocks characterized by commercial banks non-performing loan ratio caused a huge and lasting decline in Chinese economic activity: taking the first quarter of 2014 as the basic period, economic output and asset prices dropped by 0. 4%, commercial banks' interest spreads of deposit and loan rose from 3% to 6% in the following year and a half until the third quarter of 2015. These results are basically consistent with the current Chinese economic realities. Thus, facing with the downward pressure of macroeconomic and the poor quality of banking sector, we should be alert to economic cyclical fluctuations which may be induced and accelerated by financial market factors such as the financial shocks coming from financial intermediaries themselves and financial frictions. At the same time, we should pay close attention to changes in financial intermediaries' balance sheet and strengthen financial supervision to ensure financial and economic stability.