中文摘要：

摘要：利用常规观测资料和NCEP1．0°×1．0°格点再分析资料，计算了贵州2001-2010年春季对流参数并插值到贵州84个站点上，结合贵州春季冰雹实况统计分析，选取与冰雹相关性好的对流参数作为预报因子，分别用判别分析法和指标叠加法制作冰雹潜势预报，结果表明：指标叠加法优于判别分析法。最后用指标叠加法试报了2011年3—5月、2012年3—4月的冰雹，临界成功指数CSI=51．85％，命中率POD=93．33％，虚假报警率FAR=18．84％。

英文摘要：

Convection parameters during 2001-2010 spring in Guizhou are computed by using conventional observational data and the NCEP reanalysis data, and the parameters are interpolated into the 84 observational stations in the province. On the basis of statistics and analysis of hail weather conditions in Guizhou, the convection parameters correlating well to hail are selected as forecast factors. The hail trend is forecasted with discrimination analytical method and index accumulation method. The result indicates that the latter method is better than the former. So the index accumulation method is used to forecast the hail from March to May in 2011 and March to April in 2012. It is tested that the Critical Success Index （ CSI ） is 51.85%, Percent of Doom （ POD ） 93.33%, and False Alarm Rate （ FAR ） 18.84%.