中文摘要：

水资源不足是制约社会经济可持续发展的＂瓶颈＂之一,处理好水资源开发利用现状及未来开发利用潜力与人口、社会和经济可持续发展间的关系,对实现经济稳步持续增长具有重要意义。论文在系统评估水资源开发利用现状的基础上,应用水资源负载指数,从分县到全市,多尺度评价了宁波市未来水资源开发利用前景及其地域分异格局,全面揭示了宁波市水资源利用过去、现状与未来开发利用前景。研究结果表明：（1）近年,宁波市供、用水量均逐年增加,其中,供水结构以地表水为主、地下水为辅,用水结构以生产用水为主、生活用水与环境用水为辅;宁波市农业灌溉效率、第二产业与第三产业生产效率均呈增大趋势,因此,水资源生产效率整体呈现提高态势,但城镇、农村人均综合用水量仍呈增大趋势。（2）2001–2015年间,宁波市水资源负载指数在4.51–23.45之间,开发利用程度波动较大;近年来负载指数均值为11.68,其水资源开发利用水平整体非常高,必要时需从区外引水的方式缓解水资源短缺的压力。（3）未来宁波市水资源开发利用潜力有限,特别是宁波市市辖区、余姚市与慈溪市,因此,未来宁波市应以水资源统一管理、合理配置、科学调度,节约集约利用为主,从而实现最佳的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益、保障宁波市经济社会的可持续发展。

英文摘要：

Water resources insufficiency is one of the bottlenecks that restrict sustainable socio-economic development in Ningbo city. Good handling of the relationship between water resources utilization and development is of great significance for the realization of continuous economic growth and sustainable socio-economic development. This study systematically evaluated water resources utilization with respect to water supply and demand. Water resources development and utilization prospects and regional differences were then assessed at multiple scales, at both county/district and city level in Ningbo city, using the water resources carrying index. Results showed that：（1） The volume of water resources supply and consumption gradually rose each year, with surface water as the primary source and groundwater as the secondary source. Regarding consumption, industrial water consumption was the primary element, and domestic and environmental water consumption were the secondary elements. Even though the use of water resources for irrigation, secondary and, tertiary industry were becoming more efficient, comprehensive per capita water consumption was gradually increasing.（2） The water resources carrying index for Ningbo city fluctuated in the range of 4.51–23.35 during 2001–2015; the degree of water resource utilization and potential exploitation evaluation of water resources were not stable. The average value of the water resources carrying index was 11.68; the degree of utilization of water resources was very high, and the introduction of water from external water bodies was necessary, to the extent external source were available.（3） Future water resources exploitation will be quite difficult in Ningbo city, especially in Cixi county, Ningbo municipal district and Yuyao county. So the introduction of external water as a supplemental source will be required.