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中文摘要：
地下水动力学模型与时间序列模型都可用于分析、预测干旱区地下水位埋深动态变化。但比较而言,时间序列模型无须进行专门的试验来获取有关地质参数,方法易于掌握,计算量小,因而更便于应用推广。本文采用时间序列分析方法分析新疆南部平原区地下水位变化,通过HP（Hodrick-Prescott）滤波方法与ARMA（p,q）模型相结合能够准确预测干旱区地下水位埋深动态,预测的绝对误差-0.09m～0.07m之间,相对误差绝对值均小于5%。
英文摘要：
Groundwater hydraulic models and time series analysis models can be used to analyze and forecast the regime of groundwater level.Compared to groundwater hydraulic models,time series analysis models don＇t need special test to get the hydrogeological parameters.Hence,time series analysis models are widely used because they are simple and convenient.In this study,the time series analysis model is employed to analyze the temporal variation of groundwater level in the plain of southern Xinjiang area.The results show that the combined HP（Hodrick-Prescot）filter method and ARMA（p,q）model can forecast the regime of groundwater accurately with absolute errors between-0.09m to 0.07m and the absolute value of the relative errors less than 5%.
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VLDA model and its application in assessing phreatic groundwater vulnerability: A case study of phre
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