中文摘要：

马尾松毛虫是我国森林最具危害性的害虫之一，开展该虫害的遥感预测研究有助于全面、及时地发现可能发生虫害的区域，为有效采取森防检疫措施，降低虫害造成的直接、间接损失提供技术支持。以福建省为研究区，于2012年2—5月份依次开展了三明市、将乐县、沙县、南平市、华安县、云霄县、南安市、安溪县、莆田市、长汀县、建阳市、宁德市及福清市等13个监测站的马尾松毛虫越冬代调查，调查指标包括GPS坐标、松林冠层光谱、气候、地形、林分、虫源、人文环境等。对上述因子进行分析与提取，经相关分析得到13个可有效预测马尾松毛虫害等级的子因子；利用Fisher判别分析，建立无危害、轻度危害、中度危害、重度危害等4个虫害等级的判别函数，建模组样本自检结果显示4个等级的判别精度分别为71．0％、84．9％、87．2％、100％，总判别精度为80．8％，验证组样本检验结果显示判别精度为73．00％，预测准确率为75．99％，表明利用Fisher判别分析预测马尾松毛虫害等级具有较好的可行性。

英文摘要：

The Dendrolimus punctatus Walker is the most serious forest defoliator in China. The study of pest remote sensing prediction is helpful to the comprehensive and timely identification of possible damage regions, and can provide the technical support for the direct and indirect losses reduction. Taking Fujian Province as the study area, the Dendrolimus punctatus Walker overwintering generation was investigated in 13 monitoring stations, Sanming City, Jiangle County, Shaxian County, Nanping City, Huaan County, Yunxiao County, Nan＇ an City, Anxi County, Putian City, Changting County, Jianyang City, Ningde City, and Fuqing City, successively from February to May 2012. The investigation indices contained GPS coordinates, pine forests canopy spectrum, climate, terrain, stand, pest source, human environment and so on. After the analysis and extraction of these factors above, the sub-factors used to predict the Dendrolimus punctatus Walker pest levels were obtained with correlation analysis. With the help of Fisher discriminant analysis, the discriminant functions of 4 pest levels, non-damage, mild damage, moderate damage and severe damage, were constructed, and the self-test result with samples of modeling group showed that the discriminant accuracies were 71.0% , 84.9% , 87.2% , 100% respectively, with total discriminant accuracy of 80.8%. The test result with samples of validation group showed that the discriminant accuracy and accurate rate were 73.00% and 75.99% respectively, which indicated that there was good feasibility to use Fisher discriminant analysis to predict the Dendrolimus punctatus Walker pest levels.