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河北省气候变化对AO因子的响应探讨
  • ISSN号:1000-6060
  • 期刊名称:《干旱区地理》
  • 时间:0
  • 分类:P463.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]
  • 作者机构:[1]河北师范大学资源与环境科学学院,河北省环境演化与生态建设实验室,河北石家庄050024, [2]河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050021
  • 相关基金:国家自然科学基金:基于可塑性面积单元问题的人口密度研究(40871073); 河北省自然科学基金:土地利用变化的生态风险评价研究—以冀北地区为例(D2009000299); 河北省自然地理学省级重点学科; 河北师范大学博士基金:京津冀土地覆被变化定量遥感监测研究(L2011B03); 河北师范大学研究生科研基金:河北省近50年来气温与降水突变的区域特征(201102021)
中文摘要:

利用河北省72个气象台站1961-2010年逐月气温数据,选择Mann-Kendall突变趋势检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Sen’s坡度估计、一元方差分析等方法判断了河北省气温变化的趋势和突变时间,分析了气温变化的区域和季节特征,并探讨了气温变化特征与北极涛动、经纬度及海拔高度等影响因子的关系。结果表明:(1)河北省整体气温显著上升,年均温平均增幅0.30℃/10 a,四季增温幅度冬〉春〉秋〉夏;坝上高原和冀西北间山盆地区增温幅度较大;(2)河北省增温突变集中在1986-1994年;冬季和春季增温突变较显著;年均温增温突变时间北部早于南部;(3)CO2排放量持续增加、1995年之前AO指数的增强可能是河北省近50 a增温的主要原因;高纬度、高经度、高海拔、盆地以及无森林和湿地调节的地区增温显著,这些因素对区域增温具有放大作用,是影响河北省气候变化对AO响应程度的重要因素。

英文摘要:

In recent decades,continuous attention to global warming has been paid by researchers of all over the world.The temperature in China rose significantly,and also the rising trend had regional and seasonal differences,except that a few special areas showed cooling trend.Hebei Province locates in North China area with varied landforms,and the terrain in the northwest is higher than the southeast.The temperature rose significantly in Hebei Province,which responded strongly to global warming.This paper analyzed the regional and seasonal features of temperature variation trend and the time of abrupt temperature change in Hebei province in recent 50 years.On the basis of this analysis,the paper gave a discussion about the effect of CO2emission,AO(Arctic Oscillation)and other factors on the temperature change features in Hebei,this would offer a certain reference for further study of long-term temperature change in Hebei province.The data used in this paper include monthly temperature records that collected at 72 typical meteorological stations in Hebei Province,CO2emission in China and AO indices.Monthly temperature records in Hebei province were derived from Hebei Province Bureau,CO2 emission in China and the AO indices originated from World Meteorological Organization and Climate Prediction Center of NOAA(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration),respectively.The time span of CO2 emission data is 1961-2007,the others are all from 1961 to 2010.Firstly,the paper judged the time series of temperature whether had rising trend or declining trend existed or not by using the means of Mann-Kendall trend analysis,then calculating the change value by the means of Sen’s slope estimates if the temperature changed significantly.The jump time of temperature change was detected by Mann-Kendall jump test,Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics and moving t-test,and determined the accurate jump time of temperature change combined with curves of 5-year moving average and accumulative anomaly.Besides,one-way ANOVA

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期刊信息
  • 《干旱区地理》
  • 北大核心期刊(2011版)
  • 主管单位:中国科学院出版委
  • 主办单位:中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所 新疆地理学会
  • 主编:陈曦
  • 地址:乌鲁木齐北京南路818号
  • 邮编:830011
  • 邮箱:aridlg@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 电话:0991-7885506
  • 国际标准刊号:ISSN:1000-6060
  • 国内统一刊号:ISSN:65-1103/X
  • 邮发代号:58-45
  • 获奖情况:
  • 1994-1996、1997-1999年度科技期刊质量评比优秀期...,1999-2000年度科技期刊质量评比优秀期刊二等奖
  • 国内外数据库收录:
  • 英国农业与生物科学研究中心文摘,日本日本科学技术振兴机构数据库,中国中国科技核心期刊,中国北大核心期刊(2004版),中国北大核心期刊(2008版),中国北大核心期刊(2011版),中国北大核心期刊(2014版),中国北大核心期刊(2000版)
  • 被引量:18207