以"去产能、去库存、去杠杆、降成本、补短板"为重点内容的供给侧结构性改革,经稳步推进取得了阶段性成效。在实体经济结构逐步优化,去产能、去库存有效进行的同时,各类资产价格却轮番出现大涨大跌的现象。文本从再平衡与信息技术革命导致传统制造业回报阶段性走弱,凯恩斯逆周期调控理论引发货币政策的"流动性陷阱",以及金融自由化单兵突进诱发制度套利三点阐述金融市场"脱实向虚"的原因,并提出在去杠杆过程中需要审慎处理的三大博弈风险和需要坚持的三大原则。我国要通过坚定不移的去杠杆创造稳健的金融市场,进一步深化供给侧结构性改革,确保我国经济稳中求进,以振兴实体经济,培育壮大新功能。
After being set the tone by the Central Economic Work Conference,the supply-side structural reform,which focuses on "addressing overcapacity, reducing inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs, and bolstering areas of weakness",makes steady progress and phased achievements. While the structure of real economy gradually improves and the cut of overcapacity and excess inventory sees effective progress, the prices of various assets experience sharp rise and decline in succession. Based on the temporarily declining return of traditional manufacturing industries resulted from rebalance and information technology revolution,the liquidity trap of monetary policies caused by Keynes' s counter-cyclical regulation theory and the institutional arbitrage induced by financial liberalization that solely walks ahead without crutch,the thesis analyzes the reasons behind the fact that the development of fictitious financial market deviates from that of real financial market. The thesis also proposes the three gaming risks that should be handled cautiously and the three principles that should be adhered to amid the process of deleveraging.