中文摘要：

现阶段通常采用多种监测方法对冲击矿压发生、发展过程的各重要指标进行监测,在此基础上对比分析监测指标值,实现对冲击矿压的精确预测。由于受环境、设备、采矿技术条件等因素的影响,监测指标值可能存在不一致,甚至互相矛盾的现象,增加了冲击矿压的预测难度,影响了矿山的正常生产。为提高冲击矿压预测的准确性,以某矿为例,首先联合采用综合指数法、钻屑法、声发射法和电磁辐射法对危险区域进行监测,计算该区域冲击矿压的危险指数,确定该区域处于各危险状态的概率指数;然后将计算得出的概率指数作为预测指标的证据源,运用信息融合理论构建了冲击矿压预测模型,融合上述4种监测方法的预测结果,最大限度地降低各预测方法间的冗余和矛盾信息。研究表明：所构建的冲击矿压预测模型极大地提高了冲击矿压的预测精度,可供类似矿山参考。

英文摘要：

In recently,the main study ideas is to use a variety of monitoring methods to monitor the important indicators of the rock-burst occurrence and development process,based on comparison and analysis of the indicators,the rock-burst can be predicted exactly.Due to the existing influence factors of environment,equipment and mining technical conditions,phenomenons of inconsistence and contradiction in certain cases of the monitoring indicators may be occurred,which lead to the increasing difficulty of rockburst prediction and the normal of mining production can be affected seriously.In order to improve the accuracy of rock-burst prediction,taking a mine as the study example,firstly,the hazardous area is monitored by using the synthetical index method,drilling cutting method,acoustic emission method and electromagnetic radiation method,the hazard indexes of the hazardous area are computed,the hazard indexes are used to figure out the probability indexes of all conceivable hazardous states that the hazardous area might fall into; then,the probabilistic data is used as the evidence source of the prediction indicators,the rockburst prediction model is established by using the information fusion theory,the combing with the prediction results is obtained by the above four methods,the final rock-burst prediction results is obtained to eliminate the redundant and contradictory information at the maximum.The actual engineering application results show that the rock-burst prediction model established in this paper is capable of significant improvement of rock-burst prediction capacity,and the prediction accuracy is ideal,therefore,the rock-burst prediction model can provide some reference for the similar mines.