通过回顾国内外相关研究,发现在复杂的经济社会因素和条件制约下,旅游业和地区经济增长之间的关系并不唯一确定。以中国海南省为研究对象,采用现代时间序列分析方法进行实证检验。从数据结论看,海南省旅游业与经济增长存在长期稳定的相关关系,但旅游业对经济增长的作用并不十分明显,反而是经济增长极大地带动了旅游业发展。结合国情和各地统计数据进行了相关讨论,认为现阶段对其他广大“产权区域”而言,将旅游业设置为战略性主导产业仍需谨慎考虑并结合地方实际,使地方经济实现可持续发展。
It was generally believed that tourism improved local economic growth. However,by reviewing the literature, different standpoints were found. Concerning economic environment and social background, tour - industry did not always lead to GDP growth. This paper discussed the issues on tourism and economic growth, used time series methods and data of Hainan Province, eventually, got some interesting results:In some cases, tourism did not improve growth but quite the opposite, GDP led the development of tour. Based on such result, we argued that, the long - term causality between growth and tourism was still blurring and investment on tourism may not improve the development of local economy, hence such investments should be considered carefully.