中文摘要：

全球金融危机给国际贸易带来严重冲击：2009年全球贸易额大幅下滑,2012年以来年均贸易增长仅3%左右。这一现象可被称为“全球贸易低速增长之谜”。本文的数量分析表明,结构性因素对贸易增速放缓的影响略大于需求因素。其中,重要的结构性因素包括全球贸易中商品构成的变动、中国融入世界经济的红利消失、全球价值链分工模式的变动和贸易保护抬头等。1这些结构性因素均通过影响贸易收入弹性来影响贸易增速。预计未来几年,全球贸易增速将在3%-4%这一区间附近徘徊,仍无法达到危机前的水平。全球贸易低速增长对中国外贸结构转型升级而言,既是压力也是动力。

英文摘要：

The 2008 global financial crisis brought a serious shock to global trade： trade volume collapsed in 2009, and the annual growth rate of global trade is only about 3% since 2012. This phenomenon can be called ＂ the myth of global trade slowdown＂. The quantitative analysis in this paper reveals that the structural factors make a little more contributions to global trade slowdown than de- mand factors. And the important structural factors include the change of global commodity composition, the weak bonus of China＇s inte- gration into world economy, the global value chains, and the trade protection, etc. All these structural factors affect the growth rate of trade through income elasticity of trade. We forecast that the growth rate of global trade will be around 3% ~4% in the next few years, which is still lower than that before the global financial crisis. The global trade slowdown is not only a pressure but also an impetus for China＇s transformation and upgrading of trade structure.