中文摘要：

本文旨在探讨金融危机之后国际货币体系的演变。我们首先分析国际金融危机爆发前世界经济发展基本格局，其特点包括新兴市场国家快速增长，国际贸易与全球化的飞速推进，以及全球金融深化、跨境资本流动金额迅速上升，这导致世界经济对具有普遍良好信用的国际货币的需求大大增加。与此密切相关的是危机爆发前国际货币体系的三大特点：（1）美元成为各国中央银行最为倚重的储备货币，事实上成为超级货币；（2）欧元的快速崛起；（3）美国货币政策以及美元货币条件对全球经济具有巨大影响力和冲击力。基于这些分析，我们论证，国际金融危机之后，现行国际货币体系难以为继，尤其是因为美元信用基础发生了根本性的动摇，其超级国际货币的地位必然丧失。我们认为金融危机后的国际货币体系有两种主要可能的演变方向，一是各国通力合作创造出超主权国际货币；二是欧元以及人民币不断崛起，与美元形成三足鼎立的多基准货币的新国际货币体系。我们论证，第二种可能性更大。我们建议，中国应长期倡导并参与国际货币体系的改革，积极参与IMF改革，以彰显中国作为一个崛起中的大国积极推动国际合作的风范；但是，由于各种国际政治力量的干扰，我们必须做好第二种情形的准备，人民币国际化是我们最为现实和有效的选择，而中国的长期贸易顺差则是人民币国际化的必要基础。

英文摘要：

This paper analyzes the evolution of the international monetary system after the financial crisis. We first provide a quick review of three fundamental features of the world economy before the international financial crisis, including rapid growth of emerging market economies, impressive pace of globalization, and rapid financial deepening and cross-border capital flow. These features of the world economy gave rise to an ever-increasing international demand for international reserve currencies such as the US dollar. Consequently, the current international monetary system which was shaped before the financial crisis has three main noteworthy characteristics ： （ 1 ） the US dollar is the most important reserve currency relied heavily by central banks worldwide ; （2） the Euro has been emerging rapidly competing with the US dollar; （3） monetary policies and monetary conditions of the United States have tremendous influence in the world economy. We argue that after the financial crisis, the credit foundation of the US dollar has been shaken significantly and therefore the current international monetary system is not sustainable in the long-rnn. Based on these analyses, we show that there are two alternative cases of the evolution of the international monetary system in the post-financial crisis era. The first case is that countries in the world cooperate to establish a globally accepted reserve currency, which beyond the control of any sovereign state. The other alternative is that the world＇s sovereign currencies compete in international transactions and gradually a multi-currency anchored international monetary system will emerge. The most likely anchor currencies are the US Dollar, the Euro, and the Chinese RMB. We believe that by far, the multi-currency anchored system is the more likely case. We therefore suggest that while China should participate in the international monetary system reform as well as the IMF reform to push for the first possibility in order to showcase her commitment to internati