中文摘要：

中国经济的迅速发展唤起了人们对世界经济前景的重新思索，而人民币作为国际化货币崛起的可能性则是这其中最引人注目的话题之一。本文通过对各国央行国际储备、贸易结算、以及国际债券中的各国货币比重进行计量分析，意图挖掘影响一国货币国际化水平的内在因素，文章研究得出的显著因素包括：一国的经济发展总量、通货膨胀率、真实利率水平、汇率升（贬）值及波动幅度等。在回归结果上，本文进一步模拟了未来2020年主要国际货币在国际储备、贸易结算及国际债券中的比重，特别是在假设人民币可自由兑换的前提下，人民币在国际货币中可能占据的比重。在完全可兑换假设和最乐观的预测下，到2020年人民币在国际储备和国际债券中的比例可能达到近20％。我们认为完全可以采取一种双轨制的步骤，充分发挥境内、境外两个市场的作用，包括在境内实行有步骤、渐进式的资本账户下可兑换，逐步改善金融市场的运作效率；在境外充分运用香港的优势，尽快扩大人民币证券市场规模，推进人民币国际化的进程。

英文摘要：

The emergence of the Chinese economy has aroused speculations on the future landscape of the world economy, among which one of the most interesting issues is the possible rising of the Chinese RMB as an international currency. The paper discusses the factors behind the internationalization of a currency, econometrically estimate determinants of the shares of major currencies in the reserve holdings of the world＇s central banks, in the exports and imports of the countries, and in the international bonds and notes. Significant factors include： size of the home country, inflation rate. real interest rate, exchange rate variability, exchange rate appreciation. and the trade ratio with the home country. Bases on the results, the authors predict the share of the major currencies in the world currency reserves, international trade, and in the international bonds and notes, especially the share of Chinese RMB, under the assumption that the Chinese RMB becomes fully convertible, in 2020. As we predict, the RMB share in the world＇s currency reserves and long-term bonds may be as high as 20% by 2020. The authors believe that a system of dual advancement can be implemented, with steps that allow full use of both domestic and international markets. Progress in domestic implementation would include bringing about gradual convertibility in capital accounts and steadily improving the operational efficiency of financial markets. As for dealings with the outside, there should be a full utilization of Hong Kong＇s advantages, immediately expanding the scale of the RMB in stock markets, and pushing forward the process of the RMB＇s internationalization.