中文摘要：

基于VAR模型的视角运用实证分析的方法、研究了我国奶业发展受到成本抬升和进口依存加大的双重挤压对我国奶业增长的影响。结果表明，饲养成本、进口奶粉量价与奶业增长之间存在着协整关系。从脉冲响应看，历史期的牛奶产量和奶粉进口量对奶业增长的作用主要是正向的，且具有长期的波动性；而饲养成本和进口奶粉价格对奶业增长的作用主要表现为负向的约束作用。从方差分解看，影响牛奶产量的主要动力来源是其自身，其次是饲养成本、进口奶粉价格和奶粉进口量。

英文摘要：

This paper established VAK Model and empirically analyzed the double pressures of the cost raise and increasing import depen- dence of China＇s dairy industry.The results show that feeding cost, price and volume of imports have a co-integration relationship with the groycth of the industry.From the impulse response it can be found that historical yield and imports of milk had a positive effect with fluctua- tions in a long-term, while feeding cost and prices of imported milk powder had a negative effect as restraints. From the results of variance decomposition it can be seen that the main source affecting the milk growth is the production itself, then comes feeding costs, price and vol- ume of imports. The author also thinks that encouraging the development of the cooperative management and vertical integration to guaran- tee the output and quality is an effective way to keep a stable growth of the industry, boost the domestic demand, and achieve a new growth under the new normal economy.