本文基于产业政策与产业结构演进相关理论,梳理了上海市产业结构演进阶段与产业政策特征,采集改革开放以来(1978-2010年)上海市第一、第二、第三产业及其内部行业数据,进行产业贡献率的计算,对上海市产业结构演变的总体趋势、阶段划分、政策性发展拐点进行了分析。在此基础上,提出了均衡二三产业发展、正确处理高端服务业与先进制造业的关系、重新思考重化工业与高技术产业的关系等有利于产业政策制定的思考建议。
Based on theory of industrial policy and industrial structure evolution, by collecting and collating data of the three industry and internal industry of Shanghai from 1978 to 2010, we calculated the industrial contribution rate, analyzed the overall trend and the structure, phasing, policy of the three industry. And then, put forward some suggestions on revisiting relationships between the secondary industry and the third industry, high-end services and advanced manufacturing, heavy chemical industry and high-tech industry.